This document reveals that within ten years:

• Oil extraction from wells will be physically unable to meet global demand (the evidence is from the oil industry itself)

• Alternative energy sources like nuclear and natural gas will fall far short of compensating for expected shortages of oil. There is simply not enough time to convert over to them.

• Massive disruptions to transportation and the economy are expected around 2010 when the final peak of production of all petroleum liquids (globally) is followed by decline.

Most significant effects:

• Gradual, permanent cut-off of fuel for transport and for industrial machinery. Global trade will greatly decline.

• Agriculture (food production) depends heavily on fertilizers and made from oil).

• Shortages of 500,000 other goods made from oil.

• Therefore, reduction of virtually all business and government activity.

Difficulty of adapting: A major part of the problem is that existing equipment is designed only for oil fuels. For example, the world’s 11,000 airliners cannot run on natural gas, nuclear or coal.

By-products of oil: Cost and decreasing availability of 500,000 known uses of oil: Fertilizers (farms/food supply), medicines, plastics, insulation, computers, asphalt, inks & toners, paints, glues, solvents, antiseptics, golf balls, CDs trash bags, nail polish, detergents, chewing gum, etc.

Hidden problem: Not only will the oil supply dwindle, but the shortages and climbing prices will obstruct industry as it attempts to convert society to other forms of energy.

Proof of impending shortages: Much uninformed literature says oil is plentiful and that better extraction will maintain adequate supply for decades yet. However, this sheet reveals:
- misleading overstating of oil inventories, by oil companies afraid of losing investor confidence.
- a clear, forty-year trend of less and less discovery of oil and dwindling outputs from the steadily-emptying wells.

Campbell completing his Ph.D. in geology at the University of Oxford. He worked for Texaco as an exploration geologist and then at Amoco as chief geologist for Ecuador. His decade-long study of global oil-production trends has led to two books and numerous papers. He worked on behalf of Petroconsultants of Geneva, a consultancy whose database is the most comprehensive available for data on oil resources that exists outside of continental North America, and is used as a 'bible' by all international oil companies.

The IEA is an international body set up under treaty by OECD including USA to deal specifically with the issue of oil depletion. A conservative organization, it has however indirectly confirmed Campbell’s assessment in its World Energy Outlook 1998. (See "IEA" slide explanation at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm )

From http://users.knsi.com/~tbender/ivanhoe.html

Also, comment by oil depletion researcher, Brian Fleay (refs. below): "There was general acceptance of the substance of their arguments; that the bulk of remaining discovery will be in ever smaller fields within established provinces. But most thought 400 billion barrels might remain to be discovered. However, Campbell points out that it would take 35 years to find their 210 billion barrels at present discovery rates. He says present conventional oil will drive production over the peak - it is too late for these other options to alter the timing of the peak". Fleay was presenting a paper about the coming oil crash at the Chartered Institute of Transport in Australia, National Symposium, Launceston Tasmania 6-7 November 1998.He is B.J Fleay B Eng, M Eng Sc, MIEAust, MAWWA Associate of the Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy Murdoch University, Western Australia The graph and Fleay’s paper are at http://wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au/OilFleay/climaxingoil.html#4.2

and Fleay has a Web site at http://www.oilcrisis.com/ showing supporting articles from the Scientific American (March 98), the London Observer (July 98.)

"My latest estimate is that there are 151 Gb yet-to-find conventional oil excluding deepwater, polar and NGL" (Colin Campbell, June 2000 in private e-mail.)

"Is There a Lot More Undiscovered Oil?

80 per cent of oil being produced today is from fields discovered before 1973.

In the 1990's oil discoveries averaged about seven billion barrels of oil a year, only one third of usage.

The discovery rate of multi-billion barrel fields has been declining since the 1940's, that of giant (500-million barrel) fields since the 1960's.

In 1938, fields with more than 10 million barrels made up 19% of all new discoveries, but by 1948 the proportion had dropped to only 3%. Most oil fields are less than ten million barrels, and ten million barrels will supply the United States with less than a day's worth of energy. Large oil fields make up a disproportionate part of the world's oil supply. The ten largest oil fields contain a fifth of the world's oil reserves; twenty more bring the total to a third. 500 large fields contain two thirds of the world's known oil. The remainder is distributed among 20,000 or more small oil fields. The fact that discoveries of large fields are getting rarer means only one thing: we are running out of new oil to find". From: http://gbms01.uwgb.edu/~dutchs/202ovhds/resource.htm.

Steven Dutch, Professor, College of Environmental Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Green Bay. Resume at http://gbms01.uwgb.edu/~dutchs/resume.htm

Block graphs of oil field sizes: http://gbms01.uwgb.edu/~dutchs/202ovhds/resource.htm

U.S.A.
(15 yr.1977-1991 5 Billion 45 Billion 92 Billion
World
(10yr.1982-91) 91 Billion 221 Billion 221 Billion

From http://users.knsi.com/~tbender/ivanhoe.html

http://wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au/OilFleay/04discoverandprodn.html

Senior industry geologists' views on Campbell & Laherrere's arguments are summarized in the Petroleum Review (Cope 1998). There was general acceptance of the substance of their arguments; that the bulk of remaining discovery will be in ever smaller fields within established provinces.

Although most geologists thought 400 billion barrels might remain to be discovered, Campbell points out that it would take 35 years to find their 210 billion barrels at present discovery rates. He says present conventional oil (i.e. easy, not heavy oil, or deep water oil) will drive production over the peak. Then oil scarcity will make the mining of those other options prohibitively energy-costly, and the actual global oil peak date will therefore not be delayed by them).

After a century of exploration, the earth’s geology and oil resources are generally well known. This is indicated by the 40 year decline in discovery of oil. No amount of money will create oil that the planet does not contain.

Forecasts that ignore the influence of oil scarcity on extraction:

Brian Fleay B.J. Fleay B Eng, M Eng Sc, MIEAust, MAWWA
Associate of the Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy
Murdoch University, Western Australia, presenting paper at the: Chartered Institute of Transport in Australia, National Symposium, Launceston Tasmania 6-7 November 1998. Fleay is a retired civil engineer who worked for over 30 years at the Water Authority of
W. Australia. He is currently an associate of Murdock University's Institute of Science & Technology Policy and Govenor of the Economic Policy Working Group for the Greens WA

Nuclear's ability to soften the oil crash is very problematic...

http://www.uilondon.org/sym/1997/bourd.htm

Nuclear waste disposal is the major, still unresolved problem, especially breeder reactors producing plutonium a nuclear weapon/terrorist raw material, contaminating for 24,000 years

ABC News, Feb 1999: "…nearly 40,000 tons of highly radioactive used reactor fuel now kept at nuclear power plants".

http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/science/DailyNews/yuccawaste990225.html

Half-Life of Plutonium-239: The Physics Factbook © 1998-2000 by Glenn Elert http://hypertextbook.com/facts/JaniceChing.shtml

Abandoned reactor: "Megadose of Radioactivity. Although it no longer contains its uranium fuel, the Trojan reactor vessel contains 15 times as much radioactivity as those objects, according to state officials. It was shut down in 1993, two decades earlier than planned, after a series of problems including a faulty safety system that drew federal fines, an accidental release of radioactive gases and cracked steam tubes.Nearly 800 spent but highly radioactive uranium fuel rod assemblies removed from the reactor over the years remain in storage at the Trojan site.

Past accidents. Risk of more, and terrorism.(over 360 accidents at:

http://www.greenpeace.org/~comms/nukes/chernob/rep02.html )

Many more reactors would be needed. Tons of radioactive materials would be transported through populated areas: Dean Edwin Abrahamson The Challenge of Global Warming, http://www.islandpress.org/books/bookdata/chlglbw.html p. 27 says:

"The nuclear weapons proliferation risk which would accompany the replacement of fossil fuel with nuclear fission is staggering ….[That] would require between 7,000 and 8,000 large nuclear power plants, each of which [if breeders] would produce about 1,000 kg. of plutonium annually. Between 7 and 98 million kg of plutonium would therefore be produced per year and would be shipped hither and yon between the various facilities which constitute the nuclear power fuel cycle. The commercialization of plutonium would create major hazards because of its incredible toxicity and its potential use in weapons…A typical shipment would contain 250 kg – so there would be about 40,000 shipments annually. About 10 kg. of plutonium is needed t construct an atomic bomb".

Nuclear is not directly suitable for aircraft and vehicles, and adapting nuclear to make hydrogen or other fuels would be a huge.project.

Nuclear fusion is still not available, after 40 years’ research and billions of dollars invested. Magnetic Confinement Fusion spending: http://plasma.ep.wisc.edu/ufa/News/enews_021499.html

"On Feb. 1, the Department of Energy released it's proposed budget for FY 2000. Overall, DOE's budget is proposed to go from $17.4 billion in FY 99 to $18.1 billion in FY 2000. DOE's Office of Science (the new home of the Fusion Energy Science program) is proposed to go from $2.698 billion in FY 1999 to $2.835 billion in FY 2000 - a $137 million increase"..

Fusion history: Extrapolating from STARPOWER the claim that tokamak hot fusion has been ongoing since 1950 with never any beneficial surprises along the way and having spent 25 billion dollars worldwide. The laser inertial confinement fusion program has been ongoing since 1970 with never any beneficial surprises along the way and having spent 10 billion dollars worldwide. . http://www.newphys.se/elektromagnum/physics/LudwigPlutonium/File135.html

As a replacement for oil: Gas also will start running out from 2020 on. Demand for natural gas in Nth America outstripping supply, especially as power utilities take the remaining gas to generate electricity. Gas is not suited for existing jet aircraft, ship, vehicles, and equipment for agriculture and other products.

"In late 1987 Toledo was the first government entity in the State of Ohio (and one of the first cities nationally) to implement a consortium use of transport natural gas resulting in additional savings of $200,000 to $300,000 annually". http://www.climate.org/programs/cities/sec2/Toledo.html..

Gulf News Online, 29 May, 2000:
Economides: US gas price spikes expected
"US natural gas prices "definitely" will climb to $4/Mcf this fall, with world oil prices escalating to $40/bbl probably within a year, unless producers dramatically increase spending to offset depletion and to supply growing demand, a University of Houston professor told reporters at the Offshore Technology Conference Monday in Houston. But that's nothing compared with what will happen when the real gas Shortage hits North America within 2 or 3 years, says Michael J. Economides, coauthor of "The Color of Oil", a book about the economics of the oil and gas industry".

http://www.gulf-news.co.ae/16052000/BUSINESS/business16.htm

Canada: "Production per new well in the western basin has slipped from a 1986 peak, and decline rates are up. As a result, Canada will have excess pipeline capacity of about 1.5 to 2 billion cubic feet per day this year and will be "long" pipe until 2005, Mr. Frank predicts.
TransCanada faces "significant" capacity turnback in 2002 and 2003,
he says". (Brian Frank, vice president BP Amoco Gas & Power Canada at The North American Gas Strategies Conference Monday, April 17, 2000) http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3PN4PC67C&live=true&tagid=ZZZGEKAOD0C&Co

Colin Campbell, May 2000 in private e-mail: "Problem with gas is that it has a different depletion profile with a long plateau defined by market and pipeline. When the plateau ends it ends abruptly. I think the US is now on the edge of this cliff".
"Gas will peak in 2020" Colin Campbell, private e-mail June 2000.

Brian Fleay, at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/gas/ "The two largest resources not yet in production are in the Sahara and Niger Delta. It can be supposed that gas pipelines will be built soon from the Middle East to Europe and the Indian subcontinent, so that production will rise in steps as the linkages are made. If one assumes a 1% increase over the next 5 years followed by a 4% increase thereafter as oil becomes expensive, the midpoint of depletion (more or less the gas "Hubbert Peak") would come around 2018 at about 120 Tcf/annum

Gas reserves are much more difficult to assess than oil, and much more susceptible to economic factors, the most important of which is transport (pipelines/LNG). The USA is more depleted than anywhere else.

Any proposal to use natural gas as the primary substitute for oil in the transportation sector represents at best a temporary solution, and at worst a distraction of human industrial resources (consuming time and capital, while oil and gas remain economic, to produce a fleet which will then soon become obsolete, rather than using the remaining economic reserves to create a lasting solution), as well as a waste of natural resources of great potential value to future generations".

Electricity Not an Adequate Substitute for oil.

It is important to note that the end product of many alternative energy sources such as nuclear, hydro-electric power, wind, solar, geothermal, and tides is electricity, which is not a replacement for oil and natural gas in their important roles as raw material for a host of products ranging from paints and plastics, to medicines, and inks. But probably the most vital of all uses is to make the chemicals which are the basis for modern agriculture. Electricity is no substitute. Walter Youngquist, Consulting Geologist

http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2/

As a replacement for oil: About 50% to 200% as heavier than oil per energy unit: Dr. Thomas Meyer - Professor of Physics and Computer Science , California State University

http://www.csubak.edu/~tmeyer/sci360a/Notes5.htm

It has large pollution and environmental problems, an EPR of less than eight, [consumes one unit of energy to produce eight] and would require a massive expansion of coal mining to replace oil leading to a dramatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

"Conventional oil rapidly displaced the direct use of coal as an industrial and transport fuel because of its ease of storage and transport, the fine control possible in its various uses and its high power-weight ratio. Oil is the most economically effective of all the fuels, especially for transport.

Contemporary industries and services using coal, gas and electricity require petroleum powered transport to be economically effective and viable. The availability of cheap oil is the most critical factor for the future of our contemporary world.

Not all fuel types are economically equivalent. For the USA oil and gas produce 1.3 to 2.45 times the dollar value in the economy than does the direct use of coal, with oil probably superior to gas (Hall et al. 1986, p. 55). Coal converted to electricity produces 2.6 to 14.3 times the dollar value in the US economy than does the direct use of coal (Gever et al. 1991, p. 269). That is why we burn coal in power stations to produce electricity even though half the heat energy is wasted to the environment".

http://wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au/OilFleay/climaxingoil.html#4.2

Coal burning produces a great deal of solid waste (5-20%) of original volume. A single coal-fired electric plant can produce >1 million tons of solid waste a year. (100 X 100 x 100 m) http://www.mines.utah.edu/~wmep/LE_136/Lectureout/LE13609.html

"…coal-fired generating stations are major sources of the particulates and ozone that make up smog, acid rain, greenhouse gases and persistent toxins such as mercury. The Ministry of Environment has indicated that the current levels of particulates in Ontario's air are associated with 1800 premature deaths and 1400 cardiac and respiratory hospital admissions in Ontario each year". Dr. Sheela V. Basrur, Medical Officer of Health, City of Toronto

http://www.city.toronto.on.ca/legdocs/1999/agendas/committees/hl/hl990406/it002.htm

"Particulates penetrate deep into lungs. Prolonged inhalation causes a range of respiratory and cardiovascular problems, such as emphysema, asthma, bronchitis, lung cancer, and heart disease". Seth Dunn, research associate at the Worldwatch Institute.

http://www.wvhighlands.org/VoiceSep99/CoalPartI.WW.Sept99Voice.htm

"Coal-burning power plants are a major source of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, and are the leading cause of acid rain. Coal-burning power plants have a Clean Air Act incentive to clean up their act. Taxpayers should not be funding a $2.4 billion Clean Coal program or additional coal research and development programs" http://www.house.gov/science/aurilio_4-9.html at House Science Subcommittee On Energy And Environment, April 9, 1997

Liquid fuels from coal: Steve Morningthunder Instituto de Física, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

"This surge in solar sales comes as current data shows solar energy makes up less than one percent of global power supplies. Presently, about 800 megawatts of solar power capacity is in place globally, enough to meet yearly energy needs for 200,000 U.S. homes". WorldWatch Institute, July 1998 http://www.worldwatch.org/alerts/pr98716.html

"The new wind turbines added in 1998 have pushed overall wind generating capacity worldwide to 9,600 megawatts at the end of this year—double the capacity in place three years earlier….These wind turbines will generate roughly 21 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 1999—enough for 3.5 million suburban homes. Wind power is now the world's fastest growing energy source.".

http://www.worldwatch.org/alerts/pr98716.html

As a replacement for oil: Existing vehicles and aircraft and existing distribution systems are not suited to it. "Hydrogen , while very abundant on earth , almost never exists as a free gas, so other hydrogen compounds need to be treated in order to make hydrogen gas. Currently the treatment of methane with steam is used to produce the hydrogen gas ( CH4 (g) + H2O = 3H2 (g) + CO (g) ) (Zumdahl,1997) but this reaction requires a lot of energy to make the hydrogen gas . It is currently more economical to simply burn the methane instead of using it to get the hydrogen used for fuel. In addition, this method of achieving hydrogen endorses a reliance upon natural gas as well as producing Carbon Monoxide as a byproduct".

http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/~sustain/global/sensem/Forrest98.htm

Liquid hydrogen occupies eleven times the space of equivalent gasoline or diesel: http://www.energy.ca.gov/afvs/vehicles.html#500 David Pimental states on pg 212 of Food, Energy, and Society, revised edition "that the volume of hydrogen fuel is about 4 times greater for the same energy content of gasoline (8000 kcal/liter versus 2030 kcal/liter)".  .

Grain production: Food grains now contain between 4 and 10 calories of fossil fuel for every 1 calorie of solar energy.

Four percent of US energy budget is used to grow food, while 10 to 13 percent is needed to put it onto our plates. The worsening oil shortages will make production increasingly expensive. Putting food production closer to city consumers will be vital.

Percentage of US grain used to feed cattle: 70%

Efficiency: Meat feeds 1/5 as many people as the grain could.

Number of cats & dogs in USA: 131 million

Food given to pets: The North American pet food and supply industry is worth $30 billion annually, and growing.

"Future food" being consumed by using gasoline in vehicles: Gasoline consumed ‘now’ will deprive
future agriculture of energy for producing food. Here’s how much future food a 30 m.p.g vehicle is "eating" now

Bread, 1 kg loaf = 6 miles= one slice per 422 yards

That gasoline = human heavy farm labour for 23 hrs

Beef, 1 kg = consumed by driving 76.2 miles

That gasoline = human heavy farm labour 300 hrs

Canned corn 1 kg= consumed by driving 5.4 miles

That gasoline = human heavy farm labour 20 hrs

Automobiles, globally: 722 million (Jan 1, 99)

Automobiles, USA: 132 million (1997)

Trucks (all types, in USA): 1.5 million

Buses: (all types, in USA): 654,000, in 1974.

Locomotives: (USA) 26,000

World aircraft fleet: 11,000 aircraft more than 100 passengers. All of these are designed for oil-based fuel

World shipping: 85,000 ships in world.

Decked fishing boats in the world: 1.2 million

Globalization: Will end because of fuel costs & scarcity.

.

Grain production: "Food grains produced with modern, high-yield methods (including packaging and delivery) now contain between four and ten calories of fossil fuel for every calorie of solar energy. It has been estimated that about four percent of the nation's energy budget is used to grow food, while about 10 to 13 percent is needed to put it on our plates. In other words, a staggering total of 17 percent of America's energy budget is consumed by agriculture! " p. 172, BEYOND OIL, Gever et al.; Univ. Pr. Colorado 1991.

Percentage of grain consumed by cattle: 70% (U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service) A given quantity of grain eaten directly will feed 5 times as many people as it will if it is first fed to livestock and then is eaten indirectly by humans in the form of livestock products (M.E. Ensminger, PH.D., internationally recognized animal agriculture specialist) http://www.mcspotlight.org/media/reports/beyond.html#5

"If the fertilizers, partial irrigation [in part provided by oil energy], and pesticides were withdrawn, corn yields, for example, would drop from 130 bushels per acre to about 30 bushels".: http://dieoff.com/page185.htm Note, that drastic drop would only affect a minority of US agriculture: http://dieoff.org/page40.htm states:" In the United States, surface water supplies about 60% of the water used in irrigation, with the remainder coming from ground water supplies".

Number of cats & dogs in USA: 131 million

http://www.petfoodinstitute.org/facts_n_figures.html

Food given to pets: The North American pet food and supply industry is worth $30 billion annually, and growing.. http://canada.internet.com/can-news/article/0,1087,141_24611,00.html

Future food being consumed by using gasoline in vehicles:

Number of miles a 30 m.p.g vehicle drives to consume 1 kg of foods:

Bread, 1 Kg = 6 miles = is one slice per 422 yards

Equivalent to human doing heavy labour 1 hour

Beef, 1 Kg = consumed by driving 76.2 miles

Equivalent to human doing heavy labour 300 hrs

Canned corn = consumed by driving 5.4 miles

Equivalent to human doing heavy labour 20 hrs

Based on data of David Pimentel, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences and Division of Nutritional Sciences, Cornelll University, Ithaca, New York, USA, in his book "Food, Energy and Society", page 13. http://www.unu.edu/unupress/food/8F072e/8F072E06.htm This data was calculated by Steve Morningthunder (of Instituto de Física, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México) as follows:

30 mpg = 12.66 kms per liter @ 1.6 km per mile. Human can work at rate of 0.075 kW

Automobile is 20% efficient in converting gasoline heat energy into mechanical work..

Gals gasoline equivalent per kg beef = 2.54, bread=0.20 gal/kg, canned corn=0.18 gal/kg

2.54 * 30mpg  =76.2 miles per kg beef, bread=6 miles/kg, canned corn=5.4 miles/kg

1000 g per kg / 76.2 = 13.12 g per mile beef, bread=166.7g/mile, canned corn=185.2g/mile

76.2 * 1.6 = 122 km per kg beef, bread=9.6 km/kg, canned corn=8.64km/kg

1000 gms per kg/ 122 = 8.2 g per km beef, bread=104 g/km, canned corn=115 g/km

117.3 hours human sweat labour per gallon/30 mph = 3.91/1.6=244 sweat hrs/km.

Human sweat hours/kg is therefore 122 km/kg*244=298, bread=23 hrs, canned corn=20hrs

Automobiles, globally: "The world vehicle fleet is assessed at 722 million vehicles at 1st January 1999": http://ww.automotive-online.com/TRADE/executive_summary.htm

Automobiles, USA: 132 million in USA 1997:

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/hs98/tables/mv1.pdf

Buses: Of the total bus population of 654 ,000 vehicles in 1994, 71 percent were school buses, 24 percent were transit buses, and 5 percent were intercity buses http://www.ota.fhwa.dot.gov/hcas/final/two.htm

Trains: "Today the nation's railroads employ 192,000 people who maintain and operate just under 200,000 miles of track. 26,000 locomotives pull 1.6 million freight and passenger cars". http://www.csrmf.org/history

Trucks (all types) in USA 1997, 77 million:

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/hs98/tables/mv9.pdf

World aircraft fleet: "The number of aircraft in the world designed for scheduled and charter traffic, with space for more than 100 passengers, currently totals some 11,000".: http://www.ctt.se/company_overview/market/

World shipping: 85,000 ships in the world.

http://www.lr.org/news/pr/9917.html

Between 1970 and '92, the last year for which figures are available, the number of decked fishing boats in the world doubled, from 581,000 to 1.2 million.

http://spj.org/sdxawards96/08pubservice/tp1d02.htm

World War 2 Rationing described at http://www.batavia.k12.il.us/bps/HistWeb/TXTIMG/96prjcts/ww2bat/reports/hmfront/rationin/hoke2.htm

"The number of aircraft in the world designed for scheduled and charter traffic, with space for more than 100 passengers, currently totals some 11,000. These can be divided into two different groups, long-haul aircraft (wide-body) and short-haul aircraft (narrow-body". http://www.ctt.se/company_overview/market/ (.

http://www.umich.edu/~nppcpub/research/lcahome/homelca3.html

A GJ is a Gigajoule, and is equivalent to 7.28 gallons of gasoline (Conversions calculator at http://www.hionsolar.com/n-heq1.html)

"It is important to note that the end product of many alternative energy sources such as nuclear, hydro-electric power, wind, solar, geothermal, and tides is electricity, which is not a replacement for oil and natural gas in their important roles as raw material for a host of products ranging from paints and plastics, to medicines, and inks. But probably the most vital of all uses is to make the chemicals which are the basis for modern agriculture.". Walter Youngquist, Consulting Geologist

http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2/

"Most people have no idea of the tremendous number of common items produced from crude oil. Many people associate gasoline or diesel fuel with crude oil, but not the huge number of products that are used everyday. The items produced from crude oil are astounding and number in the thousands. Scientists have identified at least 500,000 different uses of oil". Examples:

Saccharine, artificial sweetener) roofing paper aspirin hair coloring heart valves crayons parachutes telephones bras transparent tape antiseptics purses deodorant panty hose air conditioners shower curtains shoes volleyballs electrician's tape floor wax lipstick sweaters running shoes bubble gum car bodies tires house paint hair dryers guitar strings pens ammonia eyeglasses contacts life jackets insect repellent fertilizers hair coloring movie film ice chests loudspeakers basketballs footballs combs/brushes linoleum fishing rods rubber boots water pipes vitamin capsules motorcycle helmets fishing lures petroleum jelly lip balm antihistamines golf balls dice insulation glycerin typewriter/computer ribbons trash bags rubber cement cold cream umbrellas ink of all types wax paper paint brushes hearing aids compact discs mops bandages artificial turf cameras glue shoe polish caulking tape recorders stereos plywood adhesives TV cabinets toilet seats car batteries candles refrigerator seals carpet cortisone vaporizers solvents nail polish denture adhesives balloons boats dresses shirts (non-cotton) perfumes toothpaste roller-skate wheels plastic forks tennis rackets hair curlers plastic cups electric blankets oil filters floor wax ping pong paddles cassette tapes dishwashing liquid water skis upholstery chewing gum thermos bottles plastic chairs transparencies plastic wrap rubber bands computers gasoline diesel fuel kerosene heating oil asphalt motor oil jet fuel marine diesel butane " Dr. Gary L. Stringer Northeast Louisiana University http://etrc33.usl.edu/etrc/projects/osage/acts/made.html

Maguire Energy Institute lists products made from oil, at:

http://www.cox.smu.edu/maguire/learning/LCCh1.html

The chemical industry relies on the petroleum industry for over 90% of the source material for the thousands of chemicals it produces: http://www.mineralswa.asn.au/~cmepet/page8.html

National debt, inflation: Money goes out of country to oil producers. Money becomes scarce. Interest/mortgage rise up. Government prints more money to pay overseas energy bills. Money devalues. Prices rise.

Poverty: Public, and businesses become poorer paying higher energy costs. Less spending, less sales. Layoffs.

"…coal-fired generating stations are major sources of the particulates and ozone that make up smog, acid rain, greenhouse gases and persistent toxins such as mercury. The Ministry of Environment has indicated that the current levels of particulates in Ontario's air are associated with 1800 premature deaths and 1400 cardiac and respiratory hospital admissions in Ontario each year". Dr. Sheela V. Basrur, Medical Officer of Health, City of Toronto

Oil companies and oil producing countries depend on shareholder confidence to get loans for exploration. It has been in their interest to keep quiet about the exhaustion of the world’s oil reserves. False reporting of reserves includes:
(a) There is clear evidence that the seven major oil-extracting countries have for years reported unchanged reserves (even though they were extracting and selling billions of barrels of oil, and that the reserves would therefore be less each year).
(b) The industry has understated actual discoveries to give the false impression of an increasing discovery trend.

(c) In 1988 five of those countries suddenly claimed they each had about twice as much reserve oil as in 1987.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/images/com12.gif

OPEC countries need to earn as much oil revenue as possible to support rapidly growing populations where the public health care, education and other services are traditionally provided free, from oil revenues, rather than from taxes.

The Gulf states, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in particular, suffer from a combination of high expectations, rapid population growth and falling oil revenues: a potentially-explosive combination. In the 1970s, the rapid inflow of oil wealth led all the Gulf states to create extensive welfare systems. Governments provided health care, education, and other services for free to all citizens, and any citizen with an advanced degree was entitled to a lucrative government job. Since the early 1980s, however, the price of oil has fallen dramatically - with disastrous results for the budgets of regional governments.

http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/meria/journal/1999/issue3/jv3n3a3.html

False reporting of reserves:

"The industry as systematically understated the size of discovery (in past to meet strict SEC rules). [US Securities and Exchange Commission]. It prefers to see the reserves be revised upwards over time. It has misled analysts into thinking that more is being found than is the case, which in turn exaggerates the trend into the future…Seventy countries in 1999 reported unchanged reserves to the Oil & Gas Journal despite production, which is implausible. Some haven't changed their estimates for years". private e-mail from Colin Campbell, June 2000.

Publicity about false reporting of reserves: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/debate/resref.htm

Personal preparations: Reduce energy dependence of family, home, lifestyle. The less fuels and goods you consume, the less the impacts will be.

Share your feeling with others. Try to stay positive and active rather than ignore it or blame people for it. Where there’s life there’s hope, esp. if we collaborate and are creative. "It’s not that new". Humans have always faced hardships, and many among us do so constantly now. Learn from them.

- Alert the entire public so people will accept preparations for the oil shortages and will participate in finding/implementing solutions

- Relocate food production nearer to cities

- Relocate workplaces nearer to homes or homes nearer to workplaces

- Prepare for conserving and rationing of dwindling oil/other resources that are created using oil

- Population control to protect children being born into the extremely harsh conditions that seem likely, and to conserve resources for those already born.

- General re-localize, to reverse now-futile globalization

- Strengthen the police to deal with likely social chaos and to control distribution of vital supplies.

http://dieoff.com/page185.htm

All references and authorities for this information are easily available in the "longer" version which you can download by temporarily joining the RunningOnEmpty internet forum mentioned below. It is in the Files section.

Also the oil die-off is described at www.hubbertpeak.com and www.dieoff.org a very large, keyword-searchable web site with scientific and oil industry literature about this topic. It is heavily annotated with authoritative references.

Discussion forum - Technical/scientific research
www.egroups.com/group/energyresources

Discussion forum-Implications, preparations, action
www.egroups.com/group/RunningOnEmpty

Author: Bruce Thomson (moderator of RunningOnEmpty forum at www.egroups.com/group/RunningOnEmpty

This sheet, and all references and authorities for this information are available for download by temporarily joining the RunningOnEmpty internet forum mentioned below. In MyGroups page, click the Files section. It is among the first files.

The oil die-off is explained in up-to-date detail at www.hubbertpeak.com, and www.dieoff.org Both sites are keyword-searchable, with scientific and oil industry literature about this topic. It is heavily annotated with authoritative references.

Discussion forum - Technical/scientific:
www.egroups.com/group/energyresources

Discussion forum-Implications, action:
www.egroups.com/group/RunningOnEmpty